Opinion Leaders: Polarization Has Increased in Turkey

The Turkish public is increasingly polarized and few voters remain undecided ahead of the June 12 general election, according to a respected public-opinion researcher. The affiliation of people with the parties they support is becoming stronger than ever, Tarhan Erdem, the head of the prominent research firm KONDA Research and Consultancy, told the Hürriyet Daily News less than a week ahead of the election.

Erdem, whose firm has a reputation for accurate opinion polls, spoke with the paper in his modest, but light-filled office in Istanbul’ s Gayrettepe neighborhood as his team was preparing KOKNDA’s last pre-election opinion poll. It will be released on the company’s website June 9.

The electorate is very decided, with a lower rate of undecided voters than in previous elections, Erdem told the Daily News in an interview.

Q: How is the situation in Turkey when it comes to the opinion research sector?

A: The part of the sector that deals with research on commercial goods is quite developed. When it comes to political public-opinion polls, or social surveys, there is a perception in society that political parties or figures are commissioning such polls and want the results that favor them to be published. However, I have never come across anyone who would say they changed their vote based on an opinion poll.

Q: Then why is there such big interest in opinion polls?

Curiosity. People are betting on the election results, wagering an outfit or dinner. I keep receiving phone calls asking us to reveal survey results. Unfortunately, some take it too seriously; then it really creates a huge burden on our shoulders.

Q: Is the boom in research companies hurting the general credibility of the sector?

A: I am really surprised that there are so many research companies. Public-opinion polls are very expensive endeavors. I don’t understand where all this money comes from. We really need to see who is financing these surveys and the purpose of the surveys needs to be explained very clearly. [But] at the end of the day, everyone is aware of everything. I believe that after one or two more elections, only the most professional [firms] will remain in the sector.

Q: What are the main factors that determine a survey’s credibility?

A: Sampling is very important: Which neighborhoods do we go to, and which streets in those neighborhoods? The responsibilities of the polltakers are equally important. It is very difficult to be a polltaker. They get doors shut in their face. The reactions they face can really make them dislike the job. It really requires patience. The nature of the job might push them to go to a coffee shop and fill out the rest [of the survey] by themselves. So it is very important to inspect the pollsters as well.

Q: You have been doing this for the past 20 years. Have you noticed any differences in respondent behavior?

A: The positive thing is that opinion polls were relatively unknown in the past. Now people are familiar with them. The negative aspect is the perception that parties are commissioning polls; this has led to very rude reactions toward pollsters. We need to be very careful with the respondents about the aim of a poll. Turkish people have this sensitivity, they don’t want to break hearts, so they may give a wrong answer [so as not to upset anyone]. There are fears [that come into play] as well.

Q: What is the main determinant of voter behavior in Turkey?

A: We have polarization in Turkey and the rate of polarization has increased. The polarization in Turkey was around 50 to 60 percent. Now it is around 80 percent. I am concerned about that.

Q. What exactly do you mean by polarization and why does it worry you?

A: Those who favor a party have stronger affiliations with that party and a stronger stance of supporting whatever the party says. This makes it very difficult to discuss issues.

Q: How will this situation be reflected in the June 12 elections?

A: Since 2002, we have had two strong parties. But right now, some will vote for a party to bring it to power while others will vote so that the other party becomes a strong opposition. This is not healthy for society. What should be the normal case is that voters should cast their ballots to make one of the parties take power. This time, we will have two big parties, one smaller one and the independents in Parliament. What could have made the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, lose power would have been the economic situation, but this has not deteriorated in Turkey.

Q: Why do you think the polarization has increased?

A: The AKP has been unable to break down the perception that it is eroding the Turkish Republic’s key principle [of secularism].

Q: How do you see the election campaign process?

A: While many disagree with me, I see the electorate as very calm. The electorate is very decided; people know how they will cast their votes. The rate of undecided voters is lower compared to past elections. And this is not something that has happened just now. The electorate has been decided for some time.
June 3, 2011
SOURCE: Hürriyet Daily News