Will Turkey approve of Sweden’s entry into Nato after downing of Turkish drone by US jet in Syria?

Following the recent incident in which a US F-16 fighter jet shot down an unmanned Turkish drone near a coalition facility in northeastern Syria, questions arise about Turkey’s stance on Sweden’s potential entry into NATO.

Said incident has the potential to strain relations between the United States and Turkey, both of whom are NATO members. The Pentagon confirmed the downing of the Turkish drone. The Turkish drone was downed in close proximity to the Syrian town of al-Hasakah, and reports indicated that Turkish drones had been conducting airstrikes within a designated US-restricted operational area before the incident. The US F-16 took action after repeatedly warning the Turkish military to relocate the drone away from the vicinity.

PENTAGON DESCRIBES THE INCIDENT AS UNFORTUNATE

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin engaged in discussions with his Turkish counterpart, Yasar Guler, to address the matter. The Pentagon characterized the incident as “unfortunate” and clarified that there was no evidence to suggest that Turkey deliberately targeted US forces.

US military officials stated that US personnel had communicated with Turkish authorities, urging them to move the drones away from the area. Initially, the Turkish drones complied with these warnings. However, one of the drones later returned to the vicinity of the US base, leading to its interception.

DID THE DRONE BELONG TO TURKISH NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY?

Initial assessments pointed to the possibility that the drone did not belong to the Turkish military but was affiliated with Turkey’s national intelligence agency, MIT, which had been involved in targeted operations against Kurdish militants in the region.

As reports say, the drones were not directly above the US base and were not targeting US personnel. It remains uncertain whether Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) troops were present alongside US forces at that time.

WILL THIS INCIDENT ESCALATE TENSION BETWEEN ANKARA AND WASHINGTON?

As of the present moment, Ankara has not issued an official statement concerning the incident. Turkish Defense Ministry sources have rejected the claim, asserting that no Turkish military drones were destroyed. Experts say this response may indicate Turkey’s inclination to avoid further escalation with Washington or could imply that the drone indeed belonged to MIT. It is of great importance how President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will respond to the incident, as he may face pressure from nationalist allies to adopt a resolute stance. However, the fact that the drone was unmanned and did not result in Turkish casualties may play an important role in the decision-making process.

In fact, President Erdogan has changed decisions and displayed an agreeable attitude towards US approach in similar situtations, several times in the near past as expressed by political experts and strategists.