A most recent analysis as to who will win 2023 presidential and deputy elections in Turkey

As Turkey approaches the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections at full speed, what kind of picture do we see in the tough race between the government and the opposition?

Until the presidential candidate of opposition bloc (Nation’s Alliance) was announced a while ago, prospects did not seem to be that bright for the opposition bloc headed by CHP (main opposition) and IYI (Good) Party. However, right after Kemal KILICDAROGLU was declared as the presidential candidate of the bloc, things turned out to change in favor of the group. Indeed, we were able to see a positive difference of approximately 10 percent increase in vote share of KILICDAROGLU to take the lead against current president.

It does not seem very likely that CHP leader and Nation Alliance’s presidential candidate will lose this advantage over the opponent in the coming two weeks before election either, judging on prevailing conditions in the political arena currently.

PROMISES MADE AND MOVES BY RULING BLOC TO INCREASE VOTE SHARE

As far as deputy election is concerned on the other hand, the ruling AK Party and partners referred to as Republic Alliance have not succeded to achieve a meaningful increase in vote share they targeted by announcing many promises to allegedly improve the economic standards of citizens.

Among such promises are a minor amount of free natural gas to be used in residences, some tax amnesties, increase in monies paid to pensioners, housing projects and new achievements in defense industry projects etc.  The reason the impact thus targeted by the ruling bloc has not turned out to be satisfactory is simply because these have not touched citizens the way citizens could benefit from them right away, meaning most have to do with future benefits like 6-12 months etc. and do not relate to today.

Therefore, people have taken them for promises and benefits to be realized in the coming time ahead (delayed satisfaction) whereas they need to see something to touch their lives, today. Consequently, all these efforts spent by the ruling power have brought limited increase of approximately 5 percent in their vote share, which seems to have melted away in time, however.

CURRENT VOTE SHARES BASED ON RECENT POLL RESULTS

Certainly, some unexpected developments can always happen before election date which is almost 2 weeks away, only. However, the current picture with below vote shares  will likely continue to prevail unless some major shocks are experienced in the political arena, meanwhile.

=> OPPOSITION (50-52 %) Nation’s Alliance: 40-42 percent, Pro-Kurdish Party and Labor Party: 10-12 percent
=> RULING BLOC (40-44 %) Republic Alliance: AK Party, MHP and others
=> OTHERS: 6-10 percent (and undecided)

56 PERCENT OF VOTERS BELIEVE OPPOSITION WILL WIN

Another important observation based on some recent poll results is that 56 percent of voters believe the opposition will win whereas 44 percent voters believe the ruling bloc will triumph.

The bottom line is, it seems that Turkey will see a new administration in charge after May 14, headed by a new president as well – unless a major and unexpected game-changer surprise is experienced in the meantime.

(Article based on observations and opinions shared by CEO of a prominent SURVEY COMPANY (Aksoy) in an interview on Youtube)