As Turkey prepares for the elections in March 2023, the situation of opposition parties
As widely known, in the 2023 general and presidential elections, the opposition ended up on the losing side with a vote distribution of 52% to 48% in favor of the ruling bloc. Several factors contributed to this outcome, with the most significant being the unfair use of all state resources by the ruling AK Party (and the bloc).
Additionally, blatant and severe false (and even fake) propaganda was employed against the opposition during the elections. Finally, the voting of refugees, who were granted citizenship (or in any other form), in favor of the ruling party also significantly affected the results.
After the election, the already fragile opposition bloc fell into disarray, providing a considerable advantage to the ruling bloc.
ÖZGÜR ÖZEL, NEW LEADER OF CHP – WILL HE BE GOOD ENOUGH TO GET THE PARTY BACK ON ITS FEET AGAIN?
Opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu, who did not resign from his position despite intense public pressure, lost the party leadership to Özgür Özel in the CHP congress. The impact of this change may not be as swift as expected, and the recovery of the defeated CHP seems to be a time-consuming process, contingent on the new party leader’s ability to deliver the required performance.
IYI PARTY AND MERAL AKSENER, THE LEADER FACING TOUGH TIMES
On the other hand, the İYİ Party, which had formed an alliance with the CHP in the elections, is currently rocked by major corruption and scandal allegations. It appears that the leadership of Meral Akşener is also at risk. The party has evidently lost much of its former strength, and recovery seems highly challenging.
As for the smaller opposition parties before the upcoming local elections, they are unlikely to have a significant impact. Therefore, the focus remains on the CHP’s swift recovery, in any case.
OPPOSITION CAN WIN ISTANBUL AGAIN, PROVIDED IMAMOGLU GETS KURDISH VOTES
Furthermore, Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş in Ankara, continue to maintain their strength. With effective campaigns, they have strong chances of winning again in the 2024 local elections and especially if the Kurdish voters support İmamoğlu in Istanbul.
It is a known fact Istanbul is a crucial target for Erdoğan, like Ankara and these two cities will undoubtedly be at the center of a fierce competition once again. İzmir is a stronghold for the CHP, and the AK Party faces a challenging task here.
IN CASE CHP DOES NOT RECOVER SWIFTLY, LOCAL ELECTION COULD BE NIGHTMARE FOR OPPOSITION
In summary, if the CHP does not quickly recover with its new party leader and secure Kurdish votes, the local election could be a tough challenge for the opposition. The current situation does not appear as promising as it should, not to forget that there are still four months until the election, and much can change in that period.
