Central Bank releases year-end expectation for USD/TRY rate by market participants: 40.01

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released the results of the Market Participants Survey. According to the survey, the year-end expectation of market participants for inflation remained at 44.16%, slightly lower than the previous survey period’s 44.19%. However, the year-end expectation for the USD/TRY exchange rate decreased to 40.01 TL from the previous level of 40.53 TL.

The survey, conducted among 68 participants from both the real and financial sectors, indicates that the current month-end overnight interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market increased from 45.82% to 51.43%. Similarly, the CBRT’s one-week repo auction interest rate expectation at the end of the current month rose from 45.00% to 50.00%.

Regarding the exchange rate, while the year-end expectation for the USD/TRY exchange rate decreased to 40.01 TL, the expectation for the exchange rate after 12 months decreased from 42.79 TL to 42.47 TL.

GROWTH EXPECTATION FOR 2025 DECREASES TO 3.7 % FROM 3.8 %

The year-end growth expectation for 2024 remained unchanged at 3.3%, as it was in the previous survey period. However, the growth expectation for 2025 decreased from 3.8% to 3.7% compared to the previous survey period.