Conflict in Syria: “If HTS takes Damascus, how will it affect Turkey?”
Heyet Tahrir el-Sham (HTS) changed the course of the war by capturing Hama and advancing toward Damascus. This development poses a significant threat to the future of Syria and Turkey’s border security. HTS is a radical group with roots in ISIS, and Turkey officially recognizes HTS as a terrorist organization. If HTS takes Damascus and forms an official government, Turkey may face the possibility of having a radical government as a neighbor.
Factors That Could Affect Turkey:
- Border Security and Refugee Flows
- If HTS takes Damascus, the likelihood increases that Turkey will be neighboring a region controlled by a terrorist organization. This could pose a major security threat to Turkey.
- Retired Lieutenant General Ahmet Yavuz emphasizes that to prevent this, the Syrian army must collaborate with Turkey to secure the border. Otherwise, there could be an increased flow of refugees, potentially leading to demographic changes in Turkey.
- Demographic Change Risk
- There are approximately 2 million Syrians in Turkey, and the demographic shift caused by HTS’s influence over this group could pose a threat to Turkey.
- There are approximately 2 million Syrians in Turkey, and the demographic shift caused by HTS’s influence over this group could pose a threat to Turkey.
- Syrian National Army (SNA) and HTS Relations
- During the Hama offensive, the SNA (Syrian National Army / Government dissidents) supported HTS. However, there have been past conflicts between these two groups. If HTS forms a government, they might try to remove the SNA from the region, which raises questions about how Turkey will manage its relations with these groups.
- During the Hama offensive, the SNA (Syrian National Army / Government dissidents) supported HTS. However, there have been past conflicts between these two groups. If HTS forms a government, they might try to remove the SNA from the region, which raises questions about how Turkey will manage its relations with these groups.
- Potential Conflicts with YPG
- HTS has had previous conflicts with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and YPG Kurdish groups), especially in eastern Syria. HTS considers YPG to be an extension of the PKK. Therefore, if HTS takes Damascus, there is a high likelihood that they will launch military operations against the YPG. Additionally, the SNA has engaged in operations against YPG, which could influence Turkey’s strategic position in the region.
Conclusion: If HTS captures Damascus, it could create significant security and diplomatic challenges for Turkey. The prospect of being neighbors with a terrorist-led government could increase refugee flows and pose demographic risks. Moreover, Turkey’s relations with other groups in Syria, particularly the YPG and SNA, may signal the beginning of a new strategic phase.
