Earthquake expert: There may be an earthquake above 7 at any moment, in Turkey
Director of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Boğaziçi University Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener said, “While the fault that has been accumulating energy in the Aegean for 100 years will break, this is true and it can reach about 800 and thousands of years in Southeastern Anatolia. In some regions, there are faults that accumulate energy that wait for 2 thousand, 2 thousand 500 years. Therefore, there is a possibility that we will experience a 7-magnitude earthquake anywhere in Turkey.”
Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute held a press conference on the 24th anniversary of the 17 August Earthquake to raise awareness about the earthquake risks in Turkey and remind of the measures to be taken against the earthquake.
“THERE WERE MORE THAN 46 THOUSAND EARTHQUAKES IN 2023”
The opening speech of the meeting was delivered by the Director of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Boğaziçi University Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener.
Özener, spoke as follows: While observing Turkey, we are observing the whole of Turkey with 268 seismic stations at the stage we have reached today. This place works 3 shifts 24/7. There were 12 thousand earthquakes in 120 years, greater than 4. Here you see how intense seismic activity our country has. Unfortunately, the most recent earthquake on February 6 also led to the loss of more than 50 thousand of our citizens’ lives.”
“WE SHOULD NOT FORGET THE THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF A BIG EARTHQUAKE IN MARMARA”
– Not only in that region, but when we look at earthquakes above 4, there are 741 earthquakes in all of Turkey. You see earthquakes happening in other regions as well, these are on the North Anatolian fault. There are more than 4 earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara.
-There were also more than 3 thousand 3 thousand 500 earthquakes in Marmara. In other words, there are more than 30 earthquakes above 30 or about 30 in the Marmara Region every year. There are 900 earthquakes in some years and over 600 in some years in the Marmara Region. Sometimes there can be speculation.
– When there was a 3.6 earthquake for the Marmara Sea recently, there was a perception like ‘I wonder if this is the signals or sounds of a big earthquake’. This is within the natural seismic activity of Marmara. In other words, the perception that a 3.6 earthquake will bring a 7 earthquake immediately after it is not very accurate. However, we should not forget the fact that there is also a big earthquake expectation in the Marmara Sea.
“WE HAVE ABOUT 500 LIVE FAULTS THAT CAN PRODUCE EARTHQUAKES ABOVE 5.5”
– When we look between the years 2020 and 2023, there were 3 thousand earthquakes in Marmara in 3 years. Some of these may have an average of 4 earthquakes every year or even over 4 in some years. Therefore, Marmara is a seismically active area.
– As you know, Turkey is an earthquake country. According to the live fault map prepared by the MTA, we have almost 500 live faults that can produce earthquakes over 5.5. However, as you know, some of these faults produce earthquakes very often, and others need to pass for a little longer, because the earthquake recurrence situations are different. Sometimes, there may be earthquakes in areas that you think there will never be an earthquake, which are claimed to be very solid, for example, in Konya.
“IT IS OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR US TO SAY WHEN THE EARTHQUAKE WILL HAPPEN”
Speaking at the meeting, the Director of the Regional Earthquake Tsunami Monitoring and Evaluation Center of the Kandilli Observatory and the Earthquake Research Institute of Boğaziçi University Assoc. Dr. Doğan Kalafat also made a speech.
Kalafat said, “The earthquake danger of the region is obvious. Therefore, rather than saying too much about this, we need to make efforts to minimize the risks of an earthquake that will occur. We also need to show this effort in an integrated way. In other words, starting from the local governments, we should work together as the central government, NGOs, neighborhood organizations and citizens to reduce this risk. We are able to give where and how big the earthquake may be within a certain margin of error, but it is out of the question that we can say when it may happen. There is a danger of an earthquake. The message we will take out from here is that we definitely and definitely need to make our cities earthquake resistant. The second message is that if we are going to live in this geography, we need to become a resilient society prepared for disasters.”
