Expert shares opinion about local election results: “Can an empty pot overthrow a government?”

The local elections, which Turkey has been talking about for months, have ended. CHP (Republican People’s Party) rose to the position of the first party nationwide after many years. The economic crisis also influenced AKP’s (Justice and Development Party) loss of many municipalities. Economist Professor Hayri Kozanoğlu, who made evaluations regarding the matter, explained the influence of the economy in both general and local elections.

The local elections of March 31st have passed. It was observed that AKP’s votes decreased nationwide, and it lost many municipalities. In Turkey, which has been experiencing an economic crisis for a long time, comments were made about how economic indicators influenced the election results.

Kozanoğlu, who commented on the economic agenda on Cumhuriyet TV, explained why the economic crisis, which did not have the expected impact in the 2023 elections, stood out this time.

“THE ECONOMY DID NOT HAVE AN EFFECT IN THE 2023 ELECTIONS”

Kozanoğlu said, “The empty pot did not reflect in the ballot box in the 2023 elections” and continued:

“At that time, in the process leading up to the elections, Central Bank reserves were spent to keep the exchange rate stable, the dollar was kept below 20. Interest rates were very low. Natural gas prices were fixed, energy price hikes were postponed, and VAT and special consumption tax hikes were postponed until after the elections. The demands of early retirement scheme (EYT) applicants were largely met. Thus, people felt very little of the economic problems. In this regard, the economic crisis did not fully reflect in the May 2023 elections.”

“NOT ONLY ECONOMY…”

Pointing out that interest rates rose after the local elections, Kozanoğlu said, “As we approached the local elections, both the inflation rate soared, and purchasing power declined. Moreover, obtaining credit or using credit cards became difficult as it was in the period when interest rates were low. Last week, consumer loan interest rates reached 82 percent. Thus, people’s complaints about the economy increased. Not only the economy but also antidemocratic behaviors, the role of sects-groups in getting public contracts, and the neglect of meritocracy are important reasons.”

“CHP STOOD OUT WITH SOCIAL MUNICIPALITY PRACTICES”

Stating that CHP municipalities stood out with social municipality practices during the economic crisis, Kozanoğlu said, “Regulations such as narrowing credit card limits and increasing minimum payment amounts have not been made yet. Despite this, there was a significant reaction at the ballot box. The social municipality practices of CHP municipalities, presenting examples of public-oriented municipality, also gave a positive message to people in terms of opposition. The black propaganda against the metropolitan mayors who won in 2019 also did not work. CHP succeeded, but this success was mainly a reaction to the system established by the Cumhur İttifakı (alliance in power). Secularism, democracy, a fairer income distribution, and sectors that care about women’s rights protested against the government.”

“THE ECONOMIC PROGRAM THAT IMPOVERISHES WILL CONTINUE”

Emphasizing that Erdogan referred to the medium-term program and the 12th Development Plan in his balcony speech, Kozanoğlu said, “The message was given that the implemented austerity policy will continue. Because it is expected that there will be inflows to Turkey with Mehmet Şimşek’s policies and a sharp increase in interest rates. Inflation may also relatively decrease, but the impoverishing and lowering of living standards effect of this program will continue. Erdogan wants to continue this path because there will be no elections soon. However, unlike public employees and retirees, the wages of labor groups may not increase in July. It was mentioned that there would be a raise once a year. A significant part of the society receives the minimum wage, if a raise is made only once, social reaction will increase.”

SOURCE: CUMHURIYET.COM.TR
TRANSLATED BY BTT