Fitch Ratings raises Turkey’s growth forecast for 2024 from 2.8% to 3.5%

The year-end inflation expectations are 43% for 2024, 23% for 2025, and 18% for 2026. These updates are part of the June edition of Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook report titled “Monetary Policy Enters a New Phase.”

The report highlights increased confidence in Europe’s recovery, a revival in China’s export sector, and stronger domestic demand in emerging markets outside China, leading to upward revisions in global growth forecasts. The global economy’s growth forecast for 2024 has been raised from 2.4% to 2.6%, with expectations of 2.4% growth for both 2025 and 2026.

 U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy is gradually slowing down, with the growth forecast for this year remaining at 2.1%. Growth projections for the U.S. are 1.5% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026.

 Eurozone Economy

The Eurozone’s growth forecast for this year has been revised upward, with an increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for 2024. The growth projections are 1.5% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026.

 Chinese Economy

China’s growth forecast for this year has been raised from 4.5% to 4.8%. The country is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026.

 Turkish Economy

For Turkey, the growth forecast for this year has been raised to 3.5% from 2.8%. The revision is based on the economy’s stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter due to a recovery in exports, a sharp decline in imports, and still strong domestic demand. The growth projections for Turkey are 3% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026. The report notes that tighter monetary policy, slower credit growth, and expected fiscal tightening will help reduce inflation, with significant base effects contributing to a lower annual rate from July onwards. The year-end inflation expectations are 43% for 2024, 23% for 2025, and 18% for 2026.