Local election in Turkey: Candidates, polls, promises, and post-elections

Political parties and independent candidates’ definitive lists were announced by provincial and district electoral boards yesterday. The lists were posted in provincial and district electoral board buildings, and the candidate discussions are now behind us. (Article by METE BELOVACIKLI)

After the announcement of the candidates, resignations from candidacy will not be considered until the end of the election. However, if these candidates are elected, their resignations will take effect, and those who come after them will be considered elected. The same procedure will be followed in case of their death.

After the announcement of the lists, the printing of the unified ballot papers will begin by the provincial electoral boards. As the printing process is completed, the ballots will be sent to the District Electoral Board Presidencies according to a plan.

Therefore, we will now watch together who will conduct election campaigns, where, and how, who will receive how many votes, which candidate will surpass the others, and who will make what mistakes amidst all this noise and commotion. However, it is also necessary not to overlook the changes that the election results will bring in politics amidst this hustle and bustle.

Before returning to this point shortly, let’s first take a look at who, where, and in what situation.

As you may have noticed, both sides are quite ambitious. Although the People’s Alliance (opposition) disbanded after the 2023 elections, the polarization between the government and the opposition continues in a similar manner.

For example, according to one side; CHP will win the elections in Eskişehir, Manisa, Balıkesir, Bursa, Uşak, Burdur, Bilecik, Bolu, Kırşehir, Sinop, Kırklareli, Edirne, Çanakkale, Tekirdağ, İzmir, Aydın, Muğla, Antalya, Mersin, Adana, Hatay, Ankara, Ardahan, Artvin, and Istanbul…

According to the other side; with the dissolution of the Nation’s Alliance, the only municipalities where CHP can definitely win are Adana, Tekirdağ, Çanakkale, and Ardahan. The cities that the Republic Alliance (ruling) will win are İzmir, Istanbul, Ankara, Aydın, Muğla, Burdur, Antalya, Mersin, Hatay, Artvin, Sinop, Kırşehir, Bolu, Bilecik, and Yalova.

But is the situation really like this?

According to the first opinion polls, the claims of both sides do not seem quite accurate. Or let’s put it this way, for now, the claims do not match reality with mathematics.

If we look at them one by one…

In Ankara, Yavaş seems to be ahead. The main reasons for this are; staying out of the controversies in the presidential elections – his slogan is “less talk, more work”, appealing to the whole electorate of Ankara, not having any problems such as forming an alliance with the DEM Party, and finally, the detachment between Turgut Altınok and the AK Party organizations. The numerical difference between the two candidates is also around 10%. Of course, this is the mathematics of the moment. We will see in the coming days where this difference will evolve.

In Istanbul, both sides are in trouble… According to the first polls, the gap is in favor of İmamoğlu. However, for now, we cannot talk about a clear difference. Whether the DEM Party alliance or Kurum’s clear statement that he will serve as mayor with state support will affect the voters remains to be seen. While on this subject, it is worth making two reminders. First, it is necessary to remember the votes received by the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance in the earthquake-stricken region in the 2023 election. Likewise, it is not surprising if the voters in the region that experienced one of the biggest disasters in history prefer the assurance of “state support”…

The other is the earthquake sensitivity of Istanbul… The government announced that it would provide a grant of 750,000 lira for urban transformation, and 750,000 lira for easy credit. It is rumored in the backstage that additional support will be announced for Murat Kurum to win the election. If new formulas are announced that will facilitate for contractors for on-site transformation and will not impose additional burden on homeowners, it should not be surprising.

By the way, it is also possible that the government will make new decisions regarding this election. For example; gradual retirement. For example; before the election, the announcement of 7,200 days of premium for insurance for interns and for those insured under the Bağ-Kur.

Let me not list the other firsts one by one. But let me share some of the information conveyed by AK Party sources. According to these sources; Adana and Mersin are close to being won but not certain. It seems that winning the election has become difficult in Bursa this time. The dissolution of the Nation Alliance in Izmir is seen as an advantage…

Yes, in short, this is the summary of the situation after the candidate lists are finalized. As I said, numbers and polls will start to be discussed this week, and we will see the picture more clearly.

Let’s also take a look at the post-election period.

Regardless of who wins which province, it seems certain that there will be a comprehensive fluctuation and change in the political structure.

In short, within the DEM Party, those who say “let’s form an alliance with the CHP” and those who say “let’s mind our own business” will inevitably come face to face.

It is undeniable that the İYİ Party will enter into a discussion process to clarify its post-election roadmap and determine a new attitude.

It is already clear that the CHP will enter an extraordinary congress process regardless of the election results. Both the leadership and the methods of determining the candidates have already ignited debates. While some mayors who did not open a single banner for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the presidential elections are now desperately striving for themselves, some party officials who are caught up in the delusion of “I can be the party leader in the new era” are preparing for the post-election period.

In other words, the elections end, the Ramadan Holiday passes, and then we enter a period where there will be changes in many parties. Some “leaders” will change, some parties will disappear. Some parties will emerge stronger from this process, and some politicians will retire…

Without forgetting, as I mentioned briefly before, early general elections will seriously begin to be discussed.

Article by METE BELOVACIKLI (EKONOMIM.COM)
Translated by BTT