New amendment to the electoral law and an analysis about possible consequences

The AK Party, which is currently in power, has determined to make changes to the electoral law in its favor as they clearly see they cannot win the election, judging on poll results. The aim of the AK Party is not to lose power by winning more deputies, this way. But down below is what an expert on politics has shared about this topic (an excerpt from the article by the author).

A first look at the picture may seem to be a little pessimistic for the oppoisiton…

“… I didn’t tell you this to paint a pessimistic picture. Yes, it seems that the change will work for the AK Party at first glance. If the system had been like this in 2018 (elections), the chair (deputy) CHP won in Urfa with 3.7 vote share would have gone to AK Party, the chair GOOD Party won with 10.6 in Aksaray would have gone to AK Part and many examples would have followed. This way AK Parti would have won many more chairs in parliament.

So, this is why they are taking a step to bring that similar system now to win the elections.

But attention; these calculations are made based on the votes of the parties four years ago. A lot has changed since then. The AKP and MHP votes are melting away. The Nations’s Alliance (opposition) that has passed the Public  Alliance (in power) and keeps widening the gap. Moreover, the disintegration of the alliance pool (system) is an amendment that damages not a particular alliance, but all alliances, or rather eliminates the advantage of having (being in) an alliance. Again, take the 2018 elections and Isparta, where the Public alliance vote total exceeded 60 percent. If the amendment introduced had been implemented at that election, one of the three deputies won by the AKP would have gone to the CHP. The alliance pool system also worked for the AKP and MHP in provinces where the vote between the two alliances was low and especially where the Nation’s Alliance received more votes than the republic.

Although in 2018 the pool system cost the AKP and MHP a total of 17 deputies, while it allowed the CHP and the GOOD Party to win a total of 22 seats extra (source: Gökçer Tahincioğlu, T24, 14 March), the now changed balance of power has made the Nation’s Alliance less dependent on the pool system. In other words, the government is going to put an end to the pool system, not to provide itself with an arithmetic benefit, but to weaken the unity of interests between the big and small parties of the opposition, deconstruct the coherence of the opposition. The biggest expectation of AK Party at this point is that the votes that will tend to leave the opposition will be directed/ returned to governing alliance (AK Party and MHP) again…”

(Source: diken.com.tr/iktidarin-secim-sistemi-hamlesi-ne-anlama-geliyor-millet-ittifaki-ne-yapmali)

Bottom line

Judging on the very clear and solid explanation of the expert, the governing alliance may very likely face a big surprise (or shock shall we say) on the contrary to their plans put into practice  which we really call political engineering.