Some economists say a possible cut in interest rate could make dollar exceed 9 TL

The central bank has announced data on current transactions. Accordingly, Turkey’s current account showed a deficit of US$ 683 million in July, and the 12-month current account deficit was US$ 27 billion 832 million. Economists evaluated data announced by the authority.

Current account deficit rise will continue

Some economists say, “Current account transaction data has come above expectations. It’s important that it came above expectations, in July. The current account deficit with tourism inputs was expected to be lower. There is a money inflow of $ 2.5 billion the source of which is not clear. If it hadn’t been for this, the current account deficit would have probably been higher.

In the period after July, Tourism and travel inputs will decrease even further. The current account deficit will continue to rise in September October, November and December. An increase in the current account deficit means that “Turkey’s foreign exchange needs” will increase further.”

Warning from French bank Societe Generale

French bank Societe Generale said the Central Bank was increasingly at risk of making the mistake of lowering interest rates too early, predicting that the Turkish lira could rise to 8.85 against the dollar at the end of the year and asking investors to be prepared.

Going for an interest rate cut could throw dollar above TL 9

Another expert evaluating the bank’s dollar forecast said 8.855 was an optimistic forecast and went on to say “The decision to be taken by the central bank on September 23 is important. Before that, the Fed’s decision on September 22 is also significant. If the FED goes to monetary tightening, and CBRT in Turkey goes to a rate cut, there will be a serious capital escape. In this case, the dollar price may exceed 9 TL” he said.

In fact, some experts note they find these estimates quite optimistic. They say “Leave alone cutting cut the interest rate, they should increase it. Going to an interest rate cut will throw the dollar above 9 TL.”

Source: halktv.com.tr/ekonomi/faiz-indirimi-dolari-9-liranin-uzerine-atar-472073h