Striking warning from geologist Naci Görür regarding potential Istanbul earthquake

Professor Dr. Naci Görür issued striking warnings regarding the potential Istanbul earthquake during a live broadcast. Görür stated that the expected earthquake in Istanbul could range between magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.6. He used the expression “we are playing extra time” and listed the risky districts of Istanbul one by one.

Geoscientists issuing warnings about a potential Istanbul earthquake highlight that the Marmara region’s cycle has elapsed. Professor Dr. Naci Görür warned of a possible earthquake of magnitude 7.6 in the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault.

Pointing out the Adalar and Kumburgaz branches, the geoscientist said, “If both of them rupture simultaneously, there is a possibility of reaching 7.6.” He went on to say “An earthquake of 7 or higher in the Marmara region has a 47% probability within 6 years and within 10 years.”

7.6 MAGNITUDE LIKELY

“The mayor elected in Istanbul on April 1st should prepare the city for the earthquake. The threat is in the Marmara region. An earthquake will occur in the northern branch of the Marmara Sea and the North Anatolian Fault. One of these is the Adalar branch, the other is the Kumburgaz branch. There is a possibility of both of these branches rupturing simultaneously. In 1766, they ruptured three months apart. If both rupture at the same time, there is a possibility of reaching 7.6. When it comes to earthquakes, politicians think of ‘building stock.’ Increasing building stock in Istanbul reduces damage.

I haven’t been part of a mayoral candidate’s team or the mayor’s team. I want to remain non-partisan, including both the ruling party and the opposition. If they need my knowledge, I am ready to provide all my information. They invite me not only from Istanbul but also from different cities. Efforts should be made to build resilient cities, and political showcase should be avoided. In this period, mayoral candidates take earthquakes seriously. This is what pleases me most in this election. They weren’t as concerned before. The seriousness of the matter should be maintained.

As a scientist, I can say that I do not think there is a harmonious cooperation between Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and the central government. Two powers should come together here. It’s not a different idea; people’s safety is important. Istanbul alone cannot make Istanbul earthquake-resistant. I wish politics could be set aside. There is no collaboration between İBB and the central government. İBB has KİPTAŞ, and it has a certain budget. I always wondered why KİPTAŞ and AFAD don’t work together. I can’t see that for now, but it’s a fact that mayoral candidates take their job seriously. İmamoğlu constantly says that the biggest problem in Istanbul is the earthquake. Similarly, Murat Kurum says the same things.

REAL ISSUE OF SURVIVAL IS EARTHQUAKE

A magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred in Japan a few days ago, and 120 people died by chance. We can’t afford to have 20,000 or 50,000 deaths in every earthquake. This is a situation that the world finds surprising, and it does not suit us. I don’t understand what politicians mean by ‘the issue of survival.’ The real issue of survival is the earthquake. I want political will. If there is an earthquake, we will discuss not only the economic independence but also the political independence of the country.

DANGEROUS DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL

The area within 10 kilometers from the coast on the European side and up to Silivri will be the places that will suffer the most loss in the earthquake. On the Anatolian side, areas starting from the coast and fill areas will be affected. When the earthquake occurred in 1999, we went to some regions and begged the mayors not to grant zoning and occupancy. Tuzla and its surroundings, Kartal, and the coastal areas of Maltepe may be affected. Imagine the second Bosporus bridge, draw a line to the right and left. Areas south of this curve will be more affected by the earthquake. Those in the north will be relatively less affected.

An earthquake between 7.2 and 7.6 will occur, and they will be affected. We have been shouting since 1999, nobody took us seriously. Politicians have just started listening to us.”