The latest situation in markets: how much is US dollar TL rate?
The dollar/TL has exceeded the levels tested in the first days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and started the day at close to 14.7 this morning. Investors will follow the results of the Russia-Ukraine-Turkey trilateral meeting within the framework of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum today. The highest-level meeting between the parties after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will take place today in Turkey. Ankara drew attention to the possibility that the meeting will create a turning point that will bring peace, while Ukraine announced that its expectations for the meeting were weak and that they still wanted a ceasefire.
The labor statistics for January, which the TURKSTAT will announce at 1000, the weekly data of the CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) at 14:30, and the daily decline and rises in oil prices exceeding 10 percent are the main developments followed in the markets.
As a result of the increasing foreign exchange needs of companies and the effect of the sale of foreign currency to the public, there were difficulties in finding foreign currency in the markets; With the increasing demand, the interest rate on foreign currency deposits was closer to 3 percent from the 0.5 percent-1 percent band.
Record increase in inflation and energy costs
The record increase in inflation and energy costs which have already exceeded 50 percent and are certain to rise to 65 percent in the coming months, raises concerns about economic policies.
The cost of energy for Turkey, which imports almost all of its energy, was the area where the first and most obvious impact of the Russian crisis was felt. While Turkey’s energy bill has reached a record high of over $8 billion per month, the amount covered by the Central Bank’s reserves is also increasing every month.
The rising cost of energy and the fact that it will be covered by reserves trigger concerns about Turkey’s current account surplus-oriented economic policy.
Attention of all parties focused at 14:30 today
The dollar/TL, on the other hand has started rising again after falling below 14 with governmental support after its rise to 14.62 last week with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The TL, which lost 44 percent last year, has been on a more stable course since the beginning of the year. The exchange rate was at 14.6310/14.6850 at 08:36 after rising as high as 14.6880.
According to a calculation by bankers from leading data, the CBRT’s net international reserves of $ 18.2 billion will have declined by $ 1 billion as of last week. The data will be released today at 14.30.
On the other hand, Turkey’s 5-year CDS finished at 648/663 basis points yesterday after rising to a record high by exceeding 700 basis points this week.
