Turkey: How Would the Parliament Look after 2011 Deputy Elections

A few weeks before general elections in Turkey many believe that AK Party (AKP) could be the winner with a good enough majority to govern without the need for a coalition with other parties. Followers of this opinion are basically influenced by the image and personal performance and the extraordinary impressive personality (including his skills to address crowds) of the prime minister.

When one listens to what the PM has to say in his public meetings to address tens of thousands that support AKP, it mostly has to do with the number and length of motorways they have built, the health reform program they have put into application and especially the success and prestige Turkey has gained during their governing period for the past 7-8 years. Another major argument the PM emphasizes on is that they have increased average GDP to USD 10,000.

It goes without saying the PM has a very impressive style (especially on the majority of voters not well educated) and he has the skill to decorate/adorn many points pertaining to their so far performance, to move crowds.

AKP also seems to have the confidence as they have won consecutive victories over rival parties so far which is well reflected in PM’s attitude.

The ruling party is known not to miss any opportunities to use the facilities of the state for their election campaign, which many do not find fair as far as this tough competition is concerned.

Taking all those factors into consideration many experts as well as supporters of AKP believe they could get over 50% of the votes and have the deputy majority in the parliament which in return could enable them to run Turkey to pass any bills and make amendments to current code in parallel to their program.

AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW

According to another view however AKP will not perform good enough to have total control in the parliament for below reasons;

AKP got 38,5% of the votes in the 2009 local elections for municipalities. Since then AKP has not undertaken any substantial steps to contribute to the improvement of wealth and life standards of the average citizens. This is despite their powerful position with the municipalities meaning they should have done much better.

AKP had got 47% in 2007 general elections. When considering the 12 million increase in the number of voters in the meantime the ruling party would need to get an extra 7 million votes to achieve the same result of 47% in the 2011 elections.

This seems to be quite difficult to realize as this additional number of voters are young people who are not known to have a very warm reception of the ruling party for reasons such as the problem of unemployment, the big scandals with university qualification exams etc. This view will be confirmed on the internet media such as forums, comments which are mainly used by young people and university students, in specific.

Another point is the government has not been able to sort out the problems of many groups such as young teachers waiting to be appointed (to take home food).

On the other hand, some major mistakes made by the government regarding the “Kurdish Opening” issue – biggest headache of Turkey – has surely been recorded as negative points by many Turks. The paradox here is the ruling party has drawn strong criticism from the patriotistic wings while it has also had to face even stronger criticism from the pro-kurdish wing for not being able to stick to the promises made by AKP to give Kurdish citizens what they want.

PERFORMANCE OF RIVAL PARTIES

CHP (Republican People’s Party) has undertaken some major steps a few weeks ahead of elections.

The administration has been renewed and a social democrat look has been given to the party.
The party has generated many new and feasible projects to bring solutions to many pending social and financial problems.
The president of CHP has introduced the arena of politics in Turkey with a brand new, unique leadership style that is said to have put his opponent out of balance, in a way.

To recap although AKP are no doubt the favorites of coming elections, there are many opinions that the results might not reward the ruling party with a glorious victory to give them the total power in the parliament. On the contrary they might have to face a big surprise by not exceeding a vote rate of 45% and see CHP  their biggest rival enjoy a vote of 30 (+)%.

If this would be the case, provided MHP (the other opposition party) gets about 10-13% of the votes and independent candidates win about 30 deputies it would be almost very diffciult for AKP to rule with a majority in the parliament.

In this case, the picture would be as follows;

AKP 40% (+/- 2)
CHP 30% (+)
MHP 13% (+2)
OTHERS

and AKP would be able to get about 260-290 deputies into the parliament.

The bottom line is Turkey is to go through a very critical period in the coming days to be followed by cruical political moves to design its future as well.

Editor
BUSINESS TURKEY TODAY