US elections and possible effects on relations with Turkey in case of a Biden victory
The results of US elections have been a matter of real concern in Turkey lately as in case of a Biden victory relations between two countries may incur new developments. This has to do with Biden’s approach to Turkey in specific as explained below.
=> To start off with Biden’s political record is clear from Turkey’s point of view and he is a politician who has always supported the Armenian genocide allegations since the beginning of his political life. It does not seem very likely to see a change in his views, in regards.
=> On the other hand, Biden’s position on the issue concerning Turkey and Greece in Eastern Mediterranean does not seem to be very promising for Turkey, either. In the state where he comes from, there is a serious Armenian Greek minority and he has mostly supported Greek views on Cyprus on Turkish-Greek issues. Obviously he is known to have anti-Turkish views on the eastern Mediterranean.
=> Yet, another important topic is the Kurdish issue and Syrian Kurds. If Biden is elected it may mean negative news from the point of view of Turkey as well. To provide an example, he had called Trump’s withdrawal of troops from Syria a betrayal of the Syrian Kurds, a while ago. As for the territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq, Biden’s views have elements that Turkey should be concerned about.
Normally, it could be said that Biden has the advantage of having worked with Turkey in the past. It is certainly a plus for leaders in terms of getting to know each other. However this certainly applies if they have similar or matching goals, in particular. It is not very possible to know how Biden would make an assessment of Erdogan whom he has already met several times, but it is no secret Biden’s assessment of Turkey does not seem to be very positive “currently”.
At the end of the day, no matter who wins, it seems that the relations between Turkey and USA are quite likely to experience tough times. Even if Trump wins, it is not a secret that he is not consistent and predictable as experienced several times in the past, although he has stated that he gets on fine with President ERDOGAN. As for Biden, he has already made his position quite clear, in a way. He was reported to say “Turkey has come to the point where it approached me with opposing policies and I will continue my old relations built on allegiance”.
To recap therefore, relations between two countries do not seem to have big chance of going for the better. On the contrary they might even worsen given the policies and promises that both candidates have put forward. The point is it would not be easy for Turkey to comply with all policies and wishes to be imposed on Turkey by the new US administration (concerning issues to include S400 missiles) meaning the US could only get harder on Turkey – which has already been going through a tough period due to economic situation as well as covid-19 problem on top of it.
(Note: On top of all, HALKBANK case which has been pending for quite a while could / most likely would also be brought to the agenda which would be a situation to disturb Turkey to a great extent)
