What do financial markets expect from 2013?
Turkey which is one of the few countries in the world that can look forward to 2013 with hopes, has substantially benefited from the interest/excess liquidity regime applied on a global scale, in the recent years
Experts state that the growth trend may continue considering the abundance of liquidity and credit growth rate will continue judging on the information provided from the markets.
According to expert estimates again – and considering good news coming from Europe do not signal a recession in the close future – it is foreseen that GDP growth rate is likely to reach a figure of 4.5 percent for the year 2013.
However, it seems that the economic crisis which has caused great difficulties on a global scale, will allow a painful growth.
In the meantime, another factor that would be very effective in 2013 is likely to occur as the elections in Germany, with no doubt.
Even though they have been severely slammed from time to time German Chancellor Merkel and Germany have fully deserved the title of 2012 ‘s most important players in economy. Their performance last year has showed that decisions are made by politicians in the European Union and not economists.
When we come back to Turkey we see the following picture;
Those who invested in the stock market had a return of 61 percent on dollar basis last year.
As for the question “Can ISE (Istanbul Stock Exchange) carry on with this performance in 2013?”
The answer would be; This would be a possibility also depending on the question if Turkey would get another rating of “investment grade country” from a credit rating agency in 2013 as well.
In case comes true, ISE100 could catch up with the reputable Asian Tigers approaching a level of 12-15xrise.
In any case the year end estimates for ISE100 by experts is expressed as between 83.500 to 94.300
12.01.2013
Editor, BTT
