Who will win 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey, ruling party or opposition?

As the most important election in the 100-year history of the Republic of Turkey is approaches, citizens have started holding their breath. People try to follow so many new developments every day in astonishment .

While there are crowds who think the AK Party that is currently in power and its leader serving and growing the country for the last 20 years, there is a considerably larger crowd of voters who think that they have done a lot of damage to the country. The latter also think that the current government is becoming more and more authoritarian and that it no longer refrains from imposing restrictions on freedoms by using all the state facilities at its disposal to the fullest.

Thus, Turkey is heading towards the elections in 5 months with a group of citizens who are strict supporters and followers of the government and its leader on one hand, and an even larger crowd of voters on the other hand, who think if this administration and its leader remain in power, the country will even come to an irretrievably worse situation.

GOVERNMENT KEEPS HERALDING GOOD NEWS TO CITIZENS LATELY, RIGHT BEFORE ELECTIONS

Although the government and its leader have recently been heralding good news to the citizens just before the elections by using all kinds of state facilities – such as giving the minimum wage a big rise, giving deserved rights to the “delayed pension community”, announcing housing campaigns for low-income citizens and heralding exploration of natural gas in the Black Sea and more – the election poll results still show that the situation is not developing in their favor, at all.

Actually the reason for this is quite simple. These moves do not bring much success because the citizens are now crushed under such a big inflation that whatever is given in terms of money is not enough anyway. Moreover, most citizens doubt about the sincerity of the government and no longer hope that positive moves will come from this government after the elections, either.

WHAT ABOUT KURDISH VOTES THAT COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE ELECTION RESULTS

Also, the government also seems to have failed to achieve success in its moves to get the Kurdish votes (between 10 and 13 percent) which it desperately needs to win the election. In other words, it seems that the Kurdish votes will probably and mostly go for the opposition.

On the other hand, the so-called six-party table( bloc) formed by the opposition parties seems to be doing well and accomplishing solid work (and planning in harmony) especially with the leadership of CHP chairperson KILICDAROGLU and IYI Parti leader AKSENER and much contribution from other four leaders as well. It is forecasted that the opposition group will have announced its presidential candidate in a very short time and literally launch the election campaign.

CURRENT VOTE SHARES OF BLOCS

Looking at the reactions from the vast majority of the people and the survey results obtained by reputable polling companies, the current share of votes seem to be as follows, roughly:

GOVERNMENT: AK Party 30-32, MHP 6-8 (TOTAL 36- 40 percent)
OPPOSITION: CHP 26-28, GOOD Party 14-16, DEVA Party 2-3, OTHERS 2-3 (TOTAL 44-50 percent)
(Other: FELICITY, DEMOCRAT, FUTURE)
HDP (pro-Kurdish) 10-12 percent

So at the end of the day if and when opposition gets majority votes of HDP electoral (which is very likely as Kurdish citizens seem quite determined not to support the ruling group) the vote share chart may look as follows:

Government: 36-40 percent of total votes
All opposition: 54-62 percent of total votes

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND OPPOSITION’S NOMINEE

Actually these figures relate to deputy election. However, they also give quite a good idea as to the results to be obtained in presidential election as well. That is in a challenge between President Erdogan as nominee of the ruling group against the candidate to be announced by the opposition. Talking about the opposition’s candidate we can see strong indication that CHP leader is quite close to being nominated by the group. Having said that current poll results show CHP leader could have a win of like 55 (or less) to 45 (or more) over the current president, if the presidential election were held today.

RECAP

Having shared all above, it does not mean that the current president who is a very experienced politician (goes without saying) will give up and wait for what is to come in elections. On the contrary, he (and the bloc) will try anything – hopefully remaining within the fair challenge boundary – to see a miracle happening in their favour in the 2023 election. Looking at the picture it might not be that easy this time because a considerable majority of the electorate seem to be determined to have their say in the election.