Will protests in Iran make regime take a step back?

The events that have taken place in Iran in recent months are being monitored with concern all over the world. We know the head covering is compulsory in Iran and the regime applies very strict pressure in order to ensure this is not violated by reformist citizens and women mainly. When protests practiced by Iranian women led to a point where an innocent Iranian woman named Mahsa AMINI was killed by security forces, protests peaked leading to clashes in streets.

When the regime reacted even more violently against the Iranian women, especially those who took to the streets to protest this event, together with Iranian who supported them, the events escalated even more, and eventually brutal and merciless executions began to be carried out by the regime.

At this point, the whole world started asking the question, “Will the regime take a step back in the face of such strong resistance, or will it respond even more violently to this resistance”. Down below is an opinion in regards:

“It was recently reported that speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bakir Kalibaf had said security would be fully restored in the country soon, so that legitimate and necessary changes would begin to create a new type of administration in the economic, social and political spheres within the framework of the Islamic Republic.

Former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, an influential politician, had also openly called for an end to the compulsory hijab, controlled by the police. Larijani stated that he believed there was a cultural solution to this problem.”

COULD A CHANGE IN POLICY OF RULING CONSERVATIVE ELITE BE EXPECTED?

“Did some of the moderate tones coming from these top officials reflect a change in the policy of the conservative ruling elite, or were they just words aimed at calming the public in the increasingly tense protests? Does this also mean that the regime has begun to take into account the protesters as a legitimate social force? Of course, time will give a clear answer to these questions. However, after the decommissioning of the reformist movement from the parliament and state cadres in Iran with the elections of 2020 and 2021, the division seems to have deepened between conservatives, namely “moderate conservatives” and “radical conservatives”. In this sense, Muhammed Bakir Kalibaf seems to be taking a moderate conservative stance with his recent statements. It is quite possible that he was may have been given this role by the system. The reason is he himself is supposed to have thoughts in this direction, as well”.

Although it is not legal in the issue of compulsory practice of hijab in the public space, some flexes could possibly be made in practice. At the same time, some observers think that the decoupling between the two factions of Iran’s conservative camp is part of a game of good cop bad cop against the public. There may be some merit in this. All this means could be that the Tehran administration is ready to make small reforms.”

SOME FLEXIBLE APPLICATIONS COULD BE MADE IN COMPULSORY HIJAB PRACTICE

“Some flexible applications could be made in the issue of compulsory hijab practice in the public areas, although not legal. However, small reforms would certainly be not sufficient to satisfy the Iranian people. The problems of the Iranian people require structural changes. In addition, unlike the Green Movement which hopes for reforms within the system, the wave of opposition that has taken to the streets today totally rejects the Iranian regime. However, the protesters do not have a political party, nor do they have a leader. They are also not ideologically motivated. For this reason, it is reported that they express their regrets as soon as they are arrested. Therefore, although it is certain that these protests will batter the regime, it does not seem very likely they will lead to regime change. At the same time, the Iranian government seems to have the power and ability to suppress these protests. If the Iranian government thinks that the protests will get out of control, it looks as if it will not hesitate to suppress the protests harshly, as it did in 1999 and 2009.”