Will Turkey go through another early election experience?

Turkey has entered the atmosphere of early elections with its ruling and opposition parties. Judging by the steps taken by the AK Party wing for a month, an early election to be held in May 2022 should not be a big surprise for anyone.

Devlet Bahçeli, the Chairman of the MHP (Nationalist Movement Party), the junior partner of the Cumhur Alliance (AK party and MHP), once again marked June 2023 for the presidential elections in a speech. But in the same speech, he explained that he had also given his organization the instruction to “go around Anatolia” – to get together with citizens in person. Bahceli is known for being the first leader to press the trigger for early elections in the last 20 years. In a sense, his speech yesterday can also be considered as a flare of future statements. Undoubtedly, Bahçeli’s call to “go out to Anatolia” is not the only symptom for an early-dominant election. The steps taken by the ruling hand and the steps planned to be taken make the picture clear.

There is no doubt that all conditions for early elections have been created in Turkey, which will be shared by all segments of the country interested in politics. Although this is the case on paper, the number of those who consider it possible is not excessive. The argument of those who do not consider early elections possible is “when the economy is so bad and opinion polls show that the AKP is in decline, the government will not go to the election”. Undoubtedly, the reasons for this approach are quite justified. But another opinion is, “will Erdogan try to take his chances before the situation gets worse, that is, much later.”

As can be seen from the examples below, the developments over the last month or two seem to indicate that Erdogan can make such a move.

Economy: Although the Central Bank knew about the possibility of currency escalation, it cut interest rates, signaled that it might go down further. Then came the information that state-owned banks are going for a 2-point reduction in mortgage lending. In the coming months, it has already turned from being a possibility that interest will be reduced a little more by public banks and that the privilege granted to home loans will be applied in other items to the expectation. The government will respond to this expectation.

Another expectation of the tradesmen is that some payments such as taxes, insurance and loans will be extended a little further. Thus, it is said that some recovery may be possible.

Minimum wage issue: Close to 50 percent of employees in Turkey work at a figure that is either just above or below the minimum wage. Therefore, it is now a matter that concerns a very large part of the country. The first news about the minimum wage has already begun to appear. The pro-media is already talking about a hike of more than 35 percent, basing it on the ministry’s officials. If this figure is realized, it will be the highest hike of the AKP era. The issue is being discussed so seriously that some organizations from the business world have already begun to express how they can publicly share the cost increase that will come to them.

With these two steps, the AKP will have touched the employees and tradesmen who make up an important part of society.

EYT and 3600: It has been announced that two important demands that the opposition parties have often expressed will be met from today. According to information received from sources close to the cabinet, the process on this issue will be completed in the first months of 2022.

The situation is no different in foreign policy for the government, which is having difficulty collecting the domestic agenda and is pursuing a short-term solution. It is only a matter of time before the similar Libyan and Eastern Mediterranean fiasco happens in Syria. Erdogan is trying to buy time with all his might. We will see in a short time how much distance he can get on this issue during the talks with Putin and Biden. Judging by the request for a two-year truce and the secrecy of the meeting with Putin, it can be said that the goal is to preserve the status quo. They must think that they can save the situation if an operation or two is organized, albeit ostentatiously.

Undoubtedly, the country is unlikely to get better politically and economically. Thaws have begun in the bureaucracy. Successive news, info and images are being leaked. Fighting has become noticeable inside the party. The business world and international capital have already started talking about the aftermath of Erdogan. There’s only one way to get through all this. And that is to go to the election and win it and force all parties to sit down at the table once again.

While the palace team is focused on preparing for an early election, the opposition parties are also aware of the situation. Aware that they are very close to power for the first time, the opposition is trying to finalize the process with all its might. The result of this mood is that the CHP acts with self-confidence on many issues negotiated in the parliament, for instance

It is possible to see similar moves realized by opposition leader regarding such topics as a visit to the Central Bank – a call to bureaucrats, a meeting with representatives of the energy sector. In other words, the opposition, as well as the government, has put all its weapons on the field for an early election.