2023 election, Turkey: Political Survey Company says vote share of AK Party has fallen below 30 percent

ORC Survey Company which conducted research in 45 provinces between February 17 and 21 announced results of its last election survey. The latest survey by ORC revealed the impact of the earthquake on preference of voters. After the earthquake, the AKP’s vote changed by 1.1 percent compared to January, dropping to 29.1. Alliance partner MHP’s vote is 5.4 percent

Mehmet Pösteki who shared results in an interview with Ruhat MENGI (a prominent journalist writing for SOZCU newspaper) has been the General Manager of ORC Public Opinion Research Company for 13 years. ORC is a member of the World Association of Researchers (ESOMAR) and its research is constantly supervised. With the results announced a week before the 2018 general election, ORC was the only company that knew both the presidential and parliamentary elections, most accurately.

WE CLEARLY SEE AK PARTY VOTES SHARE HAS FALLEN BELOW 30 PERCENT

The latest survey by ORC Research revealed the impact of the earthquake on preference of voters. After the earthquake, the AKP’s vote fell by 1.1 points compared to January and fell to 29.1. Alliance partner MHP’s vote is 5.4 percent

IMPACT OF EARTHQUAKE

The GM said “Let me put it this way; in recent months, the AK Party had a rise, there had been a gradual increase such as 0.3 one month, 0.5 another month. There was also an increase of 2-3 points compared to about a few months ago.

“Of course, there is a lot of loss compared to 2018, but there was a slight increase compared to 2-3 months ago. Although it is still new with the earthquake, we found that the AK Party’s votes decreased by 1.1 points compared to the previous month in a study we conducted throughout Turkey – our sample includes many provinces in the earthquake zone. In total, there is currently a 13.5-point decrease in the AK Party’s votes compared to 2018. Last month, this decrease had decreased to 12 points, but with the earthquake, this increased again. In the future, this may increase, it may decrease more in relation to some actions that the government will take and how much the opposition can explain the situation, it may continue in its normal course or it may increase.”

“Because people are struggling with the economy, of course, not only that region about the earthquake, but the whole of Turkey showed reaction saying “enough is enough”. After all, when you go out on the street today, people go back to their life and struggles, economic worries, concerns about their children’s education, the unemployed continue to look for work. This puts people in constant expectation, and since it is the government that will meet this expectation, they follow a number of statements that the government has made.”

NATION’S ALLIANCE (6 PARTY OPPOSITION) TAKES LEAD BY 14.1 POINTS

“It is still very new, a few days ago on February 22-27, our study took place face to face with 4720 participants in 45 cities; Results were: AK Party 29.1, Republican People’s Party 23.5, GOOD Party 19.5, HDP 8.1, MHP 5.4, Future Party 2.5, DEVA 2.3, Victory Party 2, Turkey Change Party 1.8, Great Unity Party 1.5, Hometown Party 1.3, Welfare Party Again 1, other parties 2 percent.”

ECONOMY IN FIRST PLACE EARTHQUAKE IN SECOND PLACE

“Many of the issues that have already been discussed have escalated again with the earthquake. What are these? Corruption, a feeling of distrust towards the government, the AK Party in people’s minds, there is an image that gives jobs to their own people and pleases their own relatives. This has escalated quite a bit. In addition, a number of assassinations, the fact that the People’s Alliance creates a language of fear, especially the language used by Devlet Bahçeli, also affect these.

“We previously announced that the AK Party’s vote share had increased slightly, for example, the social housing project contributed by 2-3 points after processes such as EYT. Because, the candidate of the 6 party table was not definite, we could not clearly determine the vote share, popularity until this time. But today we have clearly seen that the AK Party’s vote has gone below 30. There are many reasons, for example, when we asked a teenager “Why won’t you vote for the AK Party or what is the biggest problem”, they would say things like brain immigration, future anxiety, now everyone’s answer has started to be related to the economy and the earthquake in the first place.”

CONCERN OF CITIZENS FOR ELECTION SECURITY SEEN IN FIELD

“The earthquake disaster and the subsequent events have reduced votes of AK Party, which had risen above 30 with the projects announced in recent months, it to below 30 percent again, currently its vote is 29.1”

GOVERNMENT WILL LOSE

“We heard this on the ground; the proportion of those who say that the government will lose if there is a democratic election is higher than others. Now that psychological superiority is already established in that way. But on the one hand, there are election security concerns due to confusion and examples such as the Istanbul election that took place earlier. In other words, they think that if an election is held democratically and fairly, if the opposition literally claims the ballot box, the People’s Alliance (government) will lose.”

First of all, there is a lot of reaction to following; AFAD (State Rescue Organization), KIZILAY (Turkish Red Cross), the nepotism issue, the fact that three of them are constantly on the agenda and this is turning into a fight is a situation that makes people there, very sad. There are many other reasons for their shouting, there are those who shout at the contractors who built the building, the public officials who allowed it, there are those who reacted badly because their needs such as food, tents, blankets were not met, whoever was in charge at that moment, people were waiting for their needs and the rescue of their relatives from them, they were waiting.”

ORIGINAL CONTENT: sozcu.com.tr/2023/yazarlar/ruhat-mengi/akpnin-oy-oraninin-yuzde-30un-altina-dustugunu-net-goruyoruz-7608021/
Interview by prominent journalist RUHAT MENGİ / translated by BTT.