An opinion about remedies to get Turkey out of economic crisis prevailing currently

Many reports and forecasts are issued about how Turkey would do in terms of economy, in the coming period. Most of these evaluations do not seem to be very promising and in fact IMF for instance has shared lately that Turkey’s economy would shrink by 5 percent in 2020, and unemployment rate would rise to 17.2 percent at the end of the year.

Based on the data we collect reading articles and listening to experts – real ones – on Youtube we personally believe Turkey’s administration “should have shown much better management skills” for Turkey to avoid risks mentioned in such articles whereas we think, it has not.

For instance, the administration still seems to be refraining from applying to and cooperating with IMF for funds it is (and will soon be) badly in need of, to keep the economy going.

Obviously FED which is also considered to be an alternative source for new finance (money/dollars) opportunities does not seem to be a very feasible/suitable or possible source at the moment.

However, IMF would most likely provide required funds provided it is authorized for close inspection of a very strict economy program – which is probably not preferred by the administration.

The last alternative would be blocking dollar deposit accounts in Turkish banks which is said to be somewhere near US$ 200 billion and then converting them into TL over a specified rate which the account owners would then certainly be able to use etc. This way, the administration would have reached the source for US dollars it is badly in need of.

To do this, the administration could (would) have to print money as well so that it could convert dollar accounts into TL. On the other hand this would also help to increase the amount of TL in circulation the market thus reviving the economy and consumption.

The question is “Would this cause inflation to climb”. To a certain extent, likely but at this time of extraordinary incidents we believe this should not even be a matter of question.

After this operation the country should stick to a new economy program strictly based on production and exports and not construction any more not to forget to take very sharp svaing measures as well. To recap the above approach seems to be the most realistic remedy to the big problem the country has been going through.