Election in Turkey: Sharp rise in stock market and decrease in CDS after INCE’s withdrawal from candidacy

Muharrem INCE’s withdrawal from the candidacy brought the pricing in the markets indicating the election could end in the first round.The withdrawal of presidential candidate Muharrem Ince increased the likelihood that the elections to be held on Sunday would result in the first round, bringing  with it a sharp rise in the stock market yesterday and a decrease in the credit risk premium (CDS) pricing.

There was no reaction to the exchange rate, which bankers describe as “state controlled” and in which the TL is traded with daily limited depreciation losses.

INCREASE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND GOLD DEMAND BEFORE THE ELECTION

Bankers point out that individuals’ intense demand for foreign currency and gold continues on the last trading day before the election.

There are no restrictions on the purchase and sale of foreign currency for individuals, on the contrary to the situation with institutional ones. However, the gap between trading and selling is kept in a way that is unprecedented in history.

The demand for foreign currency is also high on the corporate side, but companies and banks complain that access to foreign currency is almost impossible except under certain conditions due to the restrictions of the Central Bank.

MAJORITY OF SURVEY RESULTS SHOW AK PARTY LIKELY TO LOSE

While polls show that the AKP, which has been in power for more than 20 years, is increasingly likely to lose, Ince, who was subjected to harsh criticism on the grounds that he divided the opposition’s vote, withdrew from the candidacy yesterday after increasing negative campaigns on social media.

Bekir AGIRDIR, founder of Konda Research said in a statement on T24 broadcast, “With Ince’s withdrawal, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s probability of winning has strengthened. It would not be a surprise for me if he gets 51 percent.”