Expert Opinion: “Turkey Needs a Protection Shield for Its Steel Industry”

Protectionism is becoming the global norm, yet Turkey remains exposed as its steel sector approaches a critical threshold. At the “New Horizons in Steel Markets” conference in Istanbul, industry voices stressed that Turkey can no longer keep its market fully open while major economies tighten their defenses.

“The Balance Has Been Broken”

Speakers described the global steel landscape as imbalanced and unsustainable. With countries worldwide raising protectionist barriers, they argue that Turkey must introduce its own measures to prevent domestic producers from being overwhelmed by low-priced, government-supported exports from surplus-capacity nations.

EU Pressure Rising

The EU’s import quotas continue to generate serious uncertainty. With the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism starting on January 1, risks are growing. A potential 50% reduction in EU steel quotas could slash Turkey’s steel exports to Europe by 60–65%, a major shock for the sector.

Imports Now Exceed Exports

For the first time in Turkey’s steel history, imports have surpassed exports. A flood of subsidized steel — particularly from Asia — is arriving at prices far below domestic production costs; hot-rolled coil near 470 USD/ton has become a symbol of this pressure. Leaving the market unprotected, experts warn, could cause long-lasting structural damage.

Energy Costs Are the Biggest Burden

Energy is now the sector’s heaviest cost item. Since the Russia–Ukraine war, industrial electricity prices in Turkey have nearly doubled, making it one of the most expensive steel-producing countries in the world. Local producers pay three times more for electricity than their US counterparts, while labor costs continue to rise. This erodes both margins and competitiveness.

Turkey Turns Into a Target Market

Although global steel production has been declining since 2021, Turkey is showing signs of recovery and may climb into the world’s top seven producers. Yet rising domestic consumption — expected to reach 39.3 million tons in 2025 — is attracting exporters from Russia, China and beyond, many of whom benefit from heavy state support.

Extra Domestic Pressures

While many countries announce new protective measures almost daily, Turkish producers face additional internal costs such as public broadcasting and environmental fees. Industry representatives argue that these burdens further tilt the playing field and insist on stronger import-restricting measures.

India: The “New China”

Another growing risk is India’s rapid expansion. With near-double-digit annual production growth, India is emerging as a new heavyweight, intensifying global competition and adding pressure on already fragile markets.

Keywords:
#Turkey_steel #steel_protection #global_protectionism #EU_quotas #CBAM #steel_imports #subsidized_steel #energy_costs #steel_market #Asia_competition #India_steel #steel_trends