Frightening scenario from economist for post-election: Dollar will see 35-40 TL in any case

Turkey is going to the elections with the main indicators that are deteriorating, in the economy. Economist GECER who said that this picture, where the purchasing power has fallen and the currency has skyrocketed, will not improve in an instant, has made a shocking prediction about the current exchange rates. Speaking about two different scenarios, GECER said that the dollar would see 35-40 TL in any case.

50 days before the elections, Turkey is facing an economic picture in which real incomes are rapidly melting in the face of high inflation and the decline in the Turkish Lira, while problems in the budget and balance of payments are increasing.

According to economist Selçuk Geçer, who says that it is impossible to improve this picture until the election, the government is resorting to palliative methods. Stating that one of them is the correction made in the lowest pension, he says that the salary increase was made to get votes and this move will backfire.

THE ELECTORAL ECONOMY OF RULING POWER

Stating that there is no economic model and no real perspective in Turkey, he said, “There is no way to fix things in a radical way when we are 50 days away from the elections.” The plan of the government is to hold the currency rate at a certain level and enter the elections without creating another shock effect. For this purpose, MB reserves continue to be drained, the pressure created by the CCM on the state budget continues, all macroeconomic balances continue to deteriorate. Those who claim to rule this country will continue to upset all balances in order to win the election.”

FRIGHTENING FORECAST FOR AFTER THE ELECTION: THE DOLLAR WILL BE 35-40 TL

Stating that there are two critical scenarios for the post-election, Economist Geçer said following:

In the first scenario, let’s say the current government wins the election. As long as they continue these wrong and meaningless policies, the pressure on the exchange rate will increase. At best, if the dollar will go to the inflation value, it will rise to between 35 and 40 lira.

The second version of the first scenario can be as follows. They can say, “we have seen these economic realities now, we have accepted them.  We will act according to economic realities in order to correct it in the next 4 years.” This will be difficult for them again. Even if they do very good work, they can’t turn down a job in a year and a half.

The second scenario is that KILICDAROGLU becomes president. This is the scenario in which everything goes well; we need to apply proper models in economy and ensure trust in institutions again. If they do these things, we will see currency fluctuations again in 5-6 months, foreigners will not rush to Turkey immediately again. If things are picking up, they’ll already fix their credit ratings, lower their risk premium, and start putting their hot money in. Important projects that have been abandoned will come back into operation and foreign exchange will enter Turkey. For the first 6 months, there will be fluctuations in the currency again, let’s not expect the dollar to be below 35-40 again, difficult days will be waiting for us again. We have to be patient with this. Then, by applying the right models, everything can be put in a certain balance. After 3 – 5 years, Turkey may regain its previous power. No matter who comes to power, there will be no magic stick in their hand.”