The main reasons behind decision of Turkish government to go to early elections

When MHP leader – man of surprises – announced he wanted an early deputy election in August 2018 (instead of 2019) it was such a big surprise the audience could hardly believe their ears. However the main shock came the following day when President ERDOGAN announced the election was to be held on 24 June 2018 (2 months earlier than suggested by MHP leader), following the meeting he had with BAHCELI. It was a major surprise for all – not that ERDOGAN had decided to hold early elections but within such a short time like 60 days. We need to remind at this point that the President had stated several times earlier that “requesting an early election would be a treason” in reply to comments “an early election was on the horizon”.

This being the case, everybody started speculating about the motive behind this rush. There were various assumptions such as the difficulty of keeping the alliance between AK Parti and MHP intact until 2019 and vital military operations Turkey was conducting in Syria etc. But the main reason as voiced by several economists is the huge amount of Turkey’s debts totaling up to USD 186 billion, to be paid in 2018.

Turkey’s economy despite the picture painted by the government does not look very comfortable as also voiced by the leader of MHP in his last speech to deputies. There are increasing economic risks and it seems the authority is sort of helpless about the “devaluating Turkish Lira” (against dollar) at quite a fast pace. And experts comment most of this bad news has to do with insufficient production, excessive spending and the deficit between importation and exportation figures that is the huge deficit in foreign trade. All this certainly brings along serious increases in inflation and unbearable cost of living for citizens, as well.

It seems that ERDOGAN believes (or is rather convinced by his consultants) an early election could be a cure for this blind-alley situation by granting a new credit to his party – provided Ak Party wins the election once again, obviously. It is not clear how much longer such a plan – even if it came true – would make it possible for Ak Parti to stay in power though when we consider all the harm Turkey’s economy has incurred so far.

All in all, it is a difficult situation for the ruling party and hopefully time will bring solutions for this beautiful country to survive from this difficult situation.