Turkey Inflation Debate Grows as TÜİK and ENAG Report Different Rates for 2025

Inflation data released for 2025 has once again brought Turkey’s cost of living into focus. While official figures point to a sharp slowdown, independent researchers and local data paint a very different picture. The growing gap between these measurements is raising new questions about prices, household expenses, and what lies ahead for 2026.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute known as TÜİK, annual inflation for 2025 stood at 30.9 percent. The institute reported that consumer prices increased by 0.89 percent in December, bringing the yearly total to 30.89 percent. These figures suggest a relatively moderate inflation trend compared to previous years.

However, the Inflation Research Group known as ENAG calculated much higher figures. ENAG reported December inflation at 2.11 percent and annual inflation at 56.14 percent, nearly double the official rate. The contrast between the two datasets has fueled public debate over how inflation is measured and experienced in daily life.

Data from the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce also reflected stronger price pressures. Inflation in Istanbul was measured at 1.23 percent in December, while annual inflation for 2025 reached 37.68 percent, positioning the city between TÜİK and ENAG estimates.

Within TÜİK’s consumer price index basket, the highest weighted spending categories recorded notable increases over the year. Food and non alcoholic beverages rose by 28.31 percent, transportation by 28.44 percent, and housing costs climbed sharply by 49.45 percent. These three groups were also among the biggest contributors to overall inflation.

The most significant annual price increases were seen in education with a rise of 66.27 percent. Housing followed with an increase of 49.45 percent, while prices in restaurants and hotels rose by 34.11 percent, reflecting persistent pressure on household budgets.

Looking ahead, expectations for inflation remain cautious. In a survey conducted by Reuters among economists, the forecast for December inflation was 0.98 percent, while the expected inflation rate for 2025 stood at 31 percent, closely aligning with TÜİK’s official outlook and suggesting uncertainty about how quickly price pressures may ease.

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