Turkey’s Central Bank announces dollar, interest, and inflation forecasts

The Central Bank (CBRT) has released the results of the November market participant survey, which includes expectations for the dollar, interest rates, inflation, and growth. According to the results, the end-of-year USD/TRY expectation for 2023 was 30.00 TL, compared to 30.05 TL in the previous survey period.

The 12-month forward exchange rate expectation in the same survey periods was 38.64 TL and 39.62 TL, respectively.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION INCREASED

Participants’ expectations for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market were 33.22% in the previous survey period, increasing to 37.71% in this survey period.

The CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate expectation at the end of the current month was 33.68% in the previous survey period, rising to 37.80% in this survey period.

INFLATION EXPECTATION DECREASED

Participants’ current year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation expectation was 68.01% in the previous survey period, decreasing to 67.23% in this survey period.

The 12-month forward CPI expectation was 45.28% in the previous survey period, decreasing to 43.94% in this survey period. The 24-month forward CPI expectation was 25.82% and 25.09% in the respective survey periods.