Will Russia’s eventual invasion of Ukraine affect Turkey politically and economically?

Many experts believe, it is a matter of time before Russia, which according to US intelligence has largely completed its military preparations, enters Ukraine. Nevertheless, Moscow sees the warnings as an attempt by the West to ‘artificially increase tensions’ in the region. Western think tanks and analysts note that the situation that will arise in the event of an invasion will also affect Turkey economically and politically.

An analysis published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said that a possible state of war would deal a blow to efforts to restore stability two countries in the region, especially in Libya and Syria. Experts comment that a war that will break out in Eastern Europe may have interconnected consequences for Turkey, ranging from negative economic effects to increased tensions in the Black Sea.

A prominent expert in politics wrote that the Ukrainian crisis posed risks for Turkey, adding that the Turkish government was more concerned about possible deep-rooted sanctions that the United States would impose on Russia, than a war. The expert also stated that sanctions might force Turkey to take sides between Russia and the West which would be another major issue.

“The Turkish economy is closely connected to Russia. These include hundreds of Turkish companies operating in Russia, billions spent by Russian tourists in Turkey, cooperation in Syria, and Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 systems.”

What is currently at stake is the operation of the Turkish Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which passes through Ukraine and passes directly under the Black Sea from Russia. With this project, it is planned to send gas to Romania and Hungary, and Turkey’s expected revenue from transit fees is very large. More importantly, this will make Turkey an important gas exporter to Europe. Both the European Union and the United States oppose this project because the EU is trying to diversify its energy resources and reduce its dependence on Russia. The Russian-Turkish pipeline is not the only project under threat. Ankara is building the Istanbul Canal, which is  supposed to connect the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and serve as a strait parallel to the Bosphorus. US sanctions against the channel may result in punishing foreign companies involved in the project.

To recap therefore, an eventual clash in Ukraine would mean a large bill for Turkey to pay as well.