Earthquake Research Institute says earthquake probability in Istanbul in 7 years is 64 percent

The director of the Earthquake Research Institute of Kandilli Observatory expects an earthquake of magnitude over 7 in Istanbul within seven years, with a 64 percent probability.

The director who spoke to media indicated that there could also be an earthquake in the central part of the North Anatolian Fault Line. He went on to say the following:

PLACE OBVIOUS TIME NOT POSSIBLE TO TELL

 “But it will be one caused by the Marmara Sea. The danger of this is obvious. We do not need to talk about if the fault line passed here or there etc. It is an arm that passes through the Sea of Marmara. This arm will produce an earthquake above 7. The place of this is obvious, but it is impossible to tell the time. It’s just statistical studies that we can do. This means that there will be a 64 percent probability of this earthquake by 2030, a 75 percent probability by 2050, a 95 percent probability by 2090.”

WHO HAD SAID WHAT EARLIER?

Regarding the possible Istanbul earthquake following statements were made earlier.

A Turkish geological engineer (professor) had said that the Istanbul earthquake was at the door adding following: “The probability of an Istanbul earthquake has increased to 60-70 percent. There’s five or six years of time left over there.“

French seismologist and geophysicist Xavier Le Pichon had said, “I think there will be a single earthquake above 7.6” for the Marmara earthquake.

Heidrun Kopp from the Geomar Helmholtz Ocean Research Center in Kiel, Germany, had stated that tensions had been increasing in Istanbul since 1766 and that there was currently a movement gap of up to 4 meters in the North Anatolian fault line region. This is too much.”

Kopp had said that, as with the earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, the complete discharge of accumulated tension at once would have severe consequences in Istanbul.

Marco Bohnhoff of the German Research Center for Geosciences had said, “An earthquake of magnitude up to 7.4 is overdue there” also expressing that Istanbul was directly on top of a fault line and the ground was not firm in many regions. He had also said “On such soft floors, there can sometimes be strong ground movements with liquefaction effects.” (diken.com.tr/kandilliye-gore-istanbulda-yedi-sene-icinde-bir-deprem-olasiligi-yuzde-64/)