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Published On: Wed, Sep 30th, 2020

Turkey to go back 11 years judging on data in new economic program of government




Based on evaluation of government’s new economic program (YEP), some experts have commented comment the size of the Turkish economy will fall to 875 billion dollars in 2023, behind 2012. On the other hand unemployment is expected to remain in double digits until the end of 2023.

According to official estimates, the new economic program (YEP), which will carry Turkey to 2023, showed that the Turkish economy will shrink more, per capita income will decrease and unemployment will increase. According to YEP, the Turkish economy will shrink by 110 billion dollars this year and the per capita income will decrease by 357 dollars. Unemployment will remain in double digits until the end of 2023.

Forecasts collapse

The program also promises that there will be no tax amnesty until the end of 2023. Treasury and Finance Minister Berat ALBAYRAK has announced Turkey’s third YEP at the meeting, also attended by the business world. He said the new approach to the economy would be the “new normal”. All of the goals announced to the public in the second YEP announced last year have completely collapsed with the third Yep announced yesterday. In the previous YEP Turkey was estimated to grow by 5 percent this year, while in the new one the growth forecast was reduced to 0.3 percent. However, some experts comment it is very difficult to maintain this estimate, as well.

In addition to growth, no estimates of the macro economy, especially national income, unemployment, inflation, borrowing requirements, foreign trade, could be realized. Also, the error rate rose to extraordinary levels due to the epidemic. In the previous program, it was estimated that national income would rise to $ 812 billion and per capita income to $ 9,738 this year. But in the newly announced program, national income will fall 702 billion ($ 110 billion less than estimated) and per capita income will decrease by $ 357 thousand and fall to $ 8,381.

According to the program, the size of the Turkish economy will increase to 875 billion dollars in 2023. But even this level shows that the Turkish economy will fall back 11 years. The reason is in 2012, national income was already 877 billion dollars.

Not much hope for the unemployed

Based on evaluations by some experts, there was no hope for the millions of unemployed who were expecting good news regarding employmeent. On the contrary, it is officially announced that unemployment will rise higher than predicted. In the newly announced program, unemployment will rise to 13.8 percent in 2021 and reach 12.9 percent. Moreover, it will remain in double digits with 10.9 percent at the end of 2023.

Dollar forecast

There was no official estimate of the dollar exchange rate. However, calculations based on macro forecasts in the program revealed that the estimated average dollar exchange rate in YEP was $ 6.91 for 2020, $ 7.68 for 2021, $ 7.88 for 2022 and $ 8.02 for 2023. In the second YEP, the ratio of public sector borrowing to national income will be 3 percent for 2020. It is estimated that it will fall to 2.8 percent in 2021, while in the newly announced YEP, the borrowing requirement in 2020 will increase by 3.1 percentage points to 6.1 percent, and in 2021 it will move to 4.5 percent. (Translated from article in Sozcu – sozcu.com.tr/2020/ekonomi/turkiye-11-yil-geriye-gidecek-6060224/









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