Economy in Turkey: Retailers Expect a 49.3 percent Decline in Sales
According to TEPAV (Turkish Economic Policies Research Foundation) data, the retail confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in the past two years. The percentage of those expecting a deterioration in their business in the next three months has increased significantly from 8.7% to 49.3%.
The Retail Confidence Index, announced by the Turkish Economic Policies Research Foundation (TEPAV), reveals that in October, the index reached -16.7 points, experiencing a decrease of 24.4 points compared to the same period of the previous year and 22.9 points compared to the previous month. This marks the lowest level observed since August 2021.
Over the last three months, the proportion of retailers indicating a worsening business situation increased from 7.1% to 58.2%. Similarly, the percentage of those anticipating a deterioration in their business in the next three months rose from 8.7% to 49.3%.
Among the key reasons for this increase are rising costs, price increases, a decrease in purchasing power, and a contraction in demand. Additionally, market stagnation and cash flow difficulties are factors negatively impacting expectations.
Largest Decline in the Eastern Black Sea Region
When analyzed regionally, it is observed that retail confidence, particularly in the Eastern Black Sea region, has declined significantly. Another notable point in the monthly change of the index is the 12.1-point shift indicating that current stock levels are below normal. While this suggests the presence of some positive elements, the overall picture is still dominated by the weight of other negative factors.
Distinct Decline in Furniture, Lighting Equipment, and Household Use
When evaluated by sub-sectors, there is a more pronounced decline in retail confidence in the “Furniture, lighting equipment, and household use products” sector compared to other sectors. In October 2023, changes in the sectors of “others (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware store, houseware, stationery, etc.),” “electric household appliances, radios, and televisions,” and “multiple types of products-selling grocery stores, supermarkets, and large stores” exceeded the average, while the sectors of “motor vehicles,” “textiles, ready-to-wear, and shoes,” “food, beverage, and tobacco products,” and “furniture, lighting equipment, and household use products” received values below the average compared to the same period last year.
